Session Information
09 SES 02 A, Countries’ Strive of Combining High Achievement with Equality: Success or Failure? Evidence from Trends over Time in TIMSS and PIRLS
Symposium
Contribution
Germany’s participation in all three assessment cycles of the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) allows the comparative investigation of trends in student achievement. Whereas ten countries showed gains in achievement in 2011 compared to 2001, for Germany no significant change became apparent. However, comparing relevant background characteristics of learners in Germany between 2001 and 2011, a change in demographics can be observed (e.g., about 6 percent more students with an immigrant background). Furthermore, students with an immigrant background show higher achievement in 2011 than in 2001. In this paper, we study how the PIRLS trend for Germany may be interpreted when trend is considered relative to demographic changes in pertinent conditioning variables. Analyses of variance focusing on covariates such as the social or migration background are conducted, extending cross-sectional regression models. Based on a conditioned national scaling model plausible values are drawn for the assessment cycles to evaluate and compare differential developments or changes in achievement for and across subpopulations (e.g., specific immigrant groups). Furthermore we comment on the importance of modeling approaches that allow for longitudinal or trend achievement data to suitably penalize the dynamics in the background information.
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