Decline in Finland’s reading literacy performance from PISA 2000 to PISA 2012
Author(s):
Inga Arffman (presenting / submitting) Kari Nissinen
Conference:
ECER 2015
Format:
Paper

Session Information

09 SES 01 A, Findings from International Large-Scale Assessments: Trend Perspectives on Achievement and Inequalities

Paper Session

Time:
2015-09-08
13:15-14:45
Room:
326. [Main]
Chair:
Wilfried Bos

Contribution

In the first two PISA assessments, PISA 2000 and 2003, Finnish students surprised the whole world by performing highest in the reading literacy study (546 and 543 points on average, respectively; see Välijärvi et al., 2002, 2007). In 2006, too, Finland scored very well (547 points), even though Korea was now the best-performing country. Thanks to these results, Finland became the educational model for many countries.

After PISA 2006, however, Finland’s reading literacy scores started to decline. Thus, in PISA 2009 Finland scored 536 points and in PISA 2012 (the latest PISA study) 524 points (Kupari et al. 2013, OECD 2014). Finland’s reading literacy performance in PISA 2012 was statistically significantly lower than it had been in anyprevious PISA round. Also, among all countries participating in all PISA rounds (PISA 2000 to 2012) Finland’s decline was third greatest (after Sweden and Iceland). At the same time, the vast majority of the participating countries have managed to improve their reading literacy. As a result, while Finland still performed sixth among all countries and economies and third among the OECD countries in the PISA 2012 reading literacy study, the difference between Finland and the OECD countries had narrowed considerably. Consequently, many countries and economies that have earlier performed lower than Finland are now performing at the same level (e.g., Ireland, Taiwan, Canada and Poland) or even better (Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan).

Finland has typically been regarded as a country which cherishes educational equality, takes care of all the students (especially the weakest) and provides them all with equal opportunities to learn (e.g. Välijärvi et al., 2002; OECD, 2011). Thus, it came as no surprise when in the first PISA studies (PISA 2000 to PISA 2006) Finland’s standard deviation (SD; referring to variation in student performance) was clearly below the OECD average (ranging between 81 and 89 points; the OECD average varying between 99 and 100 points). After PISA 2006, however, variation in Finnish students’ reading literacy performance started to increase. In 2012, Finland’s SD was 95 points. At the same time, many countries have managed to decrease student variation. As a result, variation in reading literacy performance in Finland is today at the same level as it is in the OECD on average (94 points).

Why has Finland’s reading literacy performance deteriorated? The fact that the fall has been accompanied by an increase in student variation suggests that the decline may be associated with growing inequality among Finnish students. Also, it seems possible that this inequality has not affected all students in a similar way but that certain subgroups have suffered more than some others.

This study examines the development of Finland’s reading literacy performance from year 2000 to year 2012 in selected student groups corresponding to various background variables. The purpose is to find out in which student groups reading literacy has deteriorated most and whether there are subgroups in which it has remained at the same level or even improved. This may help to find factors that may explain why Finland’s overall reading literacy performance has deteriorated. This, in turn, may help to stop the declining trend and make it rise again. As such, the results mainly concern Finland. However, they also provide a broad overview of factors related to high and low reading literacy performance, which makes them potentially generalizable to several other (developed) countries too.

Method

The data consist of Finnish student data sets gathered in the five PISA reading literacy assessment rounds conducted thus far (2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012). In PISA studies, the comparability of different rounds is ensured by means of link items, employed in transforming data from the different years to a consistent scale. For each year, group means of PISA reading literacy scores were calculated to identify trends in reading literacy performance in the various subgroups. The statistical significances of differences in mean scores between the groups as well as between the years were tested by appropriate t statistics (OECD, 2009). The background variables used in grouping students were selected from the PISA background questionnaires. Only such variables were considered that have been available in every (or almost every) PISA round and which previous research has shown to be strongly associated with reading literacy. These include, for example, gender, immigration status, parents’ socio-economic and educational background, student’s perseverance and attitudes towards school (e.g., OECD, 2014). In PISA, several background questions change cyclically from round to round according to the main assessment domain (reading literacy, mathematics or science). Variables concerning reading practices and attitudes have only been available in PISA 2000 and PISA 2009 data sets, in which the focus was on reading literacy, and therefore they were not considered in this study. Separate analyses were conducted for boys and girls, because not only PISA studies (OECD, 2014) but also several other studies – both international (e.g., Progress in International Reading Literacy Study, or PIRLS, Kupari et al., 2012) and national (e.g. Opetushallitus, 2004) – indicate that Finnish students show a significant gender gap in reading literacy.

Expected Outcomes

The results show that Finnish students’ reading literacy performance has not decreased to a similar extent in all subgroups. Rather, those students – whether boys or girls – who have the most positive attitudes towards school and are most inclined to persevere as well as girls who come from the most advantaged homes, are still very good readers. In all other student groups, reading literacy performance has deteriorated. This deterioration has been especially noticeable among immigrants and students who are not at all interested in school and who easily give up (lacking perseverance), and who come from the most disadvantaged homes. Boys greatly outnumber girls in all these groups. All in all, reading literacy performance has declined most among those students who have performed weakest also in earlier PISA studies. Today, their reading literacy skills are hardly enough for active participation in society. Altogether, the study shows that Finland’s reading literacy performance has become less equal in recent years and that this has been one of the factors that has caused the decline in Finland’s PISA reading literacy performance. To stop this trend, more attention needs to be paid to ensuring greater equality.

References

Kupari, P., Sulkunen, S. Vettenranta, J., & Nissinen, K. (2012.) Enemmän iloa oppimiseen. Neljännen luokan oppilaiden lukutaito sekä matematiikan ja luonnontieteiden osaaminen. Kansainväliset PIRLS- ja TIMSS-tutkimukset Suomessa [Getting more joy from learning. Fourth graders’ reading, mathematical and science performance. International PIRLS and TIMSS studies in Finland]. Jyväskylä: Jyväskylän yliopisto, Koulutuksen tutkimuslaitos. (in Finnish) Kupari, P., Välijärvi, J., Andersson, L., Arffman, I., Nissinen, K., Puhakka, E., & Vettenranta, J. (2013.) PISA12-ensituloksia [PISA 2012 first results]. Opetus- ja kulttuuriministeriön julkaisuja 2012:20. Helsinki: Opetus- ja kulttuuriministeriö. (in Finnish) OECD. (2009.) PISA data analysis manual. SAS Second Edition. Paris: OECD. OECD. (2011.) Strong performers and successful reformers in education. Lessons from PISA for the United States. OECD Publishing. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264096660-en. OECD. (2014.) PISA 2012 results: What students know and can do. Student performance I mathematics, reading and science, Vol. 1 (rev. ed.). OECD Publishing. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264201118-en. Opetushallitus. (2004.) Koulu – sukupuoli – oppimistulokset [School - gender - educational achievement]. Helsinki: Opetushallitus. (in Finnish) Välijärvi, J., Linnakylä, P., Kupari, P., Reinikainen, P., & Arffman, I. (2002). The Finnish success in PISA – and some reasons behind it. PISA 2000. Jyväskylä: University of Jyväskylä, Institute for Educational Research. Retrieved from http://ktl.jyu.fi/arkisto/verkkojulkaisuja/publication1.pdf. Välijärvi, J., Linnakylä, P., Kupari, P., Reinikainen, P., Sulkunen, S., Törnroos, J., & Arffman, I. (2007). The Finnish success in PISA – and some reasons behind it 2. PISA 2003. Jyväskylä: University of Jyväskylä, Institute for Educational Research. Retrieved from https://jyx.jyu.fi/dspace/bitstream/handle/123456789/37478/978-951-39-3038-7.pdf?sequence=1.

Author Information

Inga Arffman (presenting / submitting)
University of Jyväskylä
Finnish Institute for Educational Research
Jyväskylä
University of Jyväskylä
Finnish Institute for Educational Research
Jyväskylä

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